The Naira remains under the steady hand of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which injected $166 million into authorised dealer banks during the week in a bid to manage the surging demand for US dollars at the official foreign exchange window. The intervention helped keep the market relatively stable, though forward contracts showed signs of investor caution about the currency’s long-term trajectory.
Trading at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) was mixed but largely steady, with the official FX spot rate settling at ₦1,532.51 per dollar on Friday, a marginal improvement from ₦1,533.56 at the start of the week. Throughout the week, the Naira traded within a narrow band, fluctuating between ₦1,526.00/$ and ₦1,536.50/$, before closing the week at ₦1,530.00 per dollar.
While the spot market benefited from the CBN’s liquidity injection, the forwards market painted a less optimistic picture. Contracts across all tenors weakened as investors hedged against potential downside risks. The one-month forward rate dipped by 0.1 percent to ₦1,577.15 per dollar, while the three-month contract slipped by 0.3 percent to ₦1,652.88. The six-month forward fell by 0.5 percent to ₦1,764.11, and the one-year tenor declined by 0.8 percent, closing the week at ₦1,975.38 per dollar. This broad-based depreciation underscores lingering skepticism among investors about the Naira’s medium-term strength despite consistent central bank interventions.
On the external front, Nigeria’s gross reserves rose by approximately $565 million, pushing the stock to $40.72 billion. The improvement in reserves provides the CBN with a stronger buffer to continue its interventions, a factor that has reassured market participants even as they remain cautious. Analysts suggest that the rising reserve levels, supported by stronger oil receipts and non-oil inflows, will give the central bank room to defend the Naira more aggressively if market pressures intensify.
Analysts at AIICO Capital noted that in the short term, the FX market is likely to retain its current stability, with policy refinements by the CBN and ongoing fiscal adjustments helping to sustain liquidity. However, they cautioned that the forward curve’s weakness signals a still-bearish outlook on the Naira, reinforcing the need for structural inflows through exports, remittances, and investment rather than reliance on central bank intervention alone.
Beyond Nigeria, global commodity markets remained volatile through the week. Crude oil prices swung as traders monitored geopolitical developments, particularly the anticipated talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could influence sanctions on Moscow and alter supply dynamics. Brent crude slipped by 41 cents to close at $66.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 71 cents to $63.17. In precious metals, gold prices came under pressure after stronger-than-expected US inflation data reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold declined 1.82 percent to $3,337.02 per ounce, as traders shifted focus to geopolitical headlines and upcoming monetary policy guidance.
Looking ahead, analysts expect commodity prices to remain choppy, with oil likely trading sideways to lower on oversupply concerns unless geopolitical risks escalate following the US–Russia dialogue. Gold, while facing potential downside in the event of improved peace prospects, may find support from ongoing uncertainty in US monetary policy and broader macroeconomic conditions
