Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased for the third consecutive month, falling to 22.22% in June 2025 from 22.97% in May, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This represents a 0.75% point decline, reinforcing signs of a gradual slowdown in consumer price growth across the country.
The trend began in April 2025, when inflation dropped to 23.71%, and has since continued, supported by relatively stable exchange rates, improved food supply, and tight monetary policies implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Core inflation, which strips out volatile items, also moderated slightly reflecting relief in costs related to housing, transport, and healthcare.
However, food inflation presented a mixed picture. While the year-on-year food inflation rate stood at 21.97%, sharply lower than 40.87% in June 2024 due to a base-year effect, the month-on-month rate rose to 3.25% up from 2.19% in May. NBS attributed this spike to rising prices of staple items such as dried green peas, fresh pepper, crayfish, meat, tomatoes, ground pepper, and plantain flour.
The state-by-state breakdown highlighted significant disparities:
- Highest YoY Food Inflation: Borno (47.40%), Ebonyi (30.62%), Bayelsa (28.64%)
- Lowest YoY Food Inflation: Katsina (6.21%), Adamawa (10.90%), Sokoto (15.25%)
- Highest MoM Food Inflation: Enugu (11.90%), Kwara (9.97%), Rivers (9.88%)
- Decline in MoM Food Inflation: Borno (-7.63%), Sokoto (-6.43%), Bayelsa (-6.34%)
Despite this complexity, analysts believe the sustained moderation in headline inflation could strengthen investor confidence, enhance purchasing power, and support macroeconomic stability in the second half of 2025. Still, risks persist especially from high energy costs and insecurity in food-producing regions.
Stakeholders are watching closely to see if the inflation downtrend will hold in the months ahead, as Nigeria continues to navigate its post-reform recovery path.
